China and the world economy
中国和世界经济
Crosstown traffic
穿城交通
The global economy is slowing. For one of its biggest members, that is good news.
全球经济正在放缓。而对于一些大国,这是好消息。
FOR the past year or two, the big economies have experienced a “multi-speed” recovery, as the IMF calls it. The recovery has resembled third-world traffic, where juggernauts and rickshaws, cars and cycles ply the same lanes at different speeds, often getting in each other’s way.
过去一两年,大经济体开始以不同速度开始复苏,国际货币基金如此形容到。这些复苏类似于在第三世界的交通情况。在那里,重型卡车、人力车、小汽车和单车分别以不同速度走在同样的路上,互相挡住了去路也是常有发生的事。
But for the past month or two, this traffic has slowed in unison. The deceleration is evident in the prices of commodities, which have fallen by 8.6% since mid-February, according to The Economist’s commodity-price index. It is also reflected in American manufacturing. New orders for durable goods, such as engines and cars, fell by 3.6% in April (albeit after a strong rise the month before). Factory output is still growing modestly, according to the Philadelphia Fed’s latest survey, but has lost more momentum since March than in any two months since November 2008.
但在过去的一两个月,这条路上整体的交通都慢了下来【行进速度不约而同地慢了下来】。这种放缓在物价上面表现明显,自二月中以来物价下跌了8.6%。美国制造业里也有同样的反应。耐用品,例如引擎和汽车的订单,四月的新预订下跌了3.6%(而在前一个月,该数字迅猛上升)。据费城联邦储备局的最新调查显示,虽然工厂产量仍在慢慢地增长【有适度增长】 ,但是自三月以来增长动力的下降比2008年十一月以来任何两个月之间的下降更厉害【涨幅相比08年11月以来是最低的】。
America’s recovery relied for longer than most on fiscal injections. But by early August the federal government will bang up against a debt limit imposed by Congress. Any deal to raise the limit would almost certainly require spending reductions, and failure to strike a deal at all would require drastic cuts as the government stops selling debt. Even if the government is allowed to keep selling debt, the Federal Reserve will soon stop buying it, as it reaches the end of its latest round of “quantitative easing”, a programme to buy longer-dated paper with freshly printed money.
虽说美国不主要依赖财政投入复苏经济,但是对财政投入的依赖时间却比以前要长。但8月初联邦政府就要开始执行国会定下来的债务上限。任何推高该上限的交易多数一定会被要求削减,随着政府不再出售国债,交易失败则要求大幅削减。【但八月初联邦政府负债将超过国会设定的上限。任何增加上限的举动几乎肯定会要求减缩开支,而如果不能提高这一上限,政府就无法继续出售国债,进而要求大幅减少开支。】即时政府能持续出售国债,联邦储备局也会马上停止购入,因为这些债务触及到了其最近一轮的“定量宽松”的额度。“定量宽松”是一项通过多印钞票购入长期债权的项目。
The euro zone’s prospects of growing its way out of trouble are receding, according to surveys of purchasing managers by HSBC and Markit, an information provider. Their “flash” (ie, preliminary) index for the euro-area economy fell sharply from 57.8 in April to 55.4 in May, a drop not seen since late 2008. In services the pessimism expressed about the coming year was reminiscent of mid-2009, before the recovery had not picked up any speed at all.
根据一项由汇丰和信息提供商马基特共同完成的调查显示,欧元区摆脱危机的可能性正在减弱。他们对欧元区经济情况的“快速”(例如,预测性的)指数【“初步”指数】从四月的57.8大幅下调到五月的55.4,这是自2008年来第一次的下调。服务业业内,持消极态度者表示来年将和2009年非常相似,当时没有经济复苏的迹象。
The “flash” causing the biggest splash this week was, however, not in Europe but in China. HSBC’s preliminary estimate for Chinese manufacturing fell to 51.1 (see chart), well below the long-term average of 52.3, confirming a slowdown evident in April’s industrial-production figures. The release hurt stockmarkets worldwide. In a single day the Shanghai Composite index gave up its gains for the year.
预测数据引起最大的影响是在中国而不是在欧洲。汇丰对中国生产业的预测下调到51.1(如图),远远低于平均值52.3,印证了四月工业生产下滑的情况。数据出来以后对世界范围内的股东篱把酒黄昏后市市场造成震荡。一天之内,上证综合指数跌去了一年的增长额。
This strong reaction was curious. In China, unlike the euro area or America, a slowdown is overdue. Its growth in the past two quarters was too fast to sustain, resulting in a worrisome rise in inflation. The government has been trying to slow the economy, by reining in runaway lending. The industrial slowdown is welcome evidence that these measures are working.
这种强烈的反应显得奇怪。不像欧元区或是美国,中国的经济放缓反应迟缓。过去两个季度的增长太迅猛而不能持久,因此市场忧虑这会带来通胀上扬。中国政府企图通过控制失控的借贷缓解经济过热的情况,。工业生产放缓表明这些措施收到了效果。
【这样的强烈反应有些奇怪。中国不像欧元区或者美国,经济增速减缓是迟早的事。过去两季度的增长实在太快,难以持续,带来了通胀威胁的上升。政府试图通过控制脱缰的信贷来减缓经济增长速度。工业的减速表明这些措施起到了效果,应该受到欢迎。】
A PMI reading above 50 indicates rising output; one of 51.1 is consistent with GDP growth of 9%, says HSBC. But the figure immediately raised fears of a much harder landing. Observers may worry that inflation has already got out of hand, forcing the government to hammer the economy to bring prices back under control. At the end of 1994, for example, China faced inflation of over 25%. In the next two years, tight macroeconomic controls knocked 4.6 percentage points off its growth rate.
预测指数超过50则表明产量增加。汇丰表明51.1分之一【51.1的PMI】和9%的GDP增长是相吻合的。但该数据迅速引起对更强烈的硬着陆的担忧。观察者担心通胀已经失控,因此中国政府被迫压制经济寻求价格回到可控水平。【迫使政府采取严厉措施,使价格得到控制。】例如,1994年年底中国面临高于25%的通胀率。接下去的两年,政府利用紧缩的宏观调控政策压下了4.6个百分点的增长率。
But inflation in China is now only 5.3%. Vegetable prices have fallen, and non-food inflation may be easing. China’s inflation has proved more stubborn than expected. But growth will not have to slow by four points to quell it.
但是,中国目前的通胀率是5.3%。蔬菜价格下跌,非食品类的通胀可能放缓。中国的通胀问题比预期更难处理【应付】。不过,不需硬压四个百分点去舒缓增长。【但是不一定非要杀敌一千,自损八百,使增长率下降4.6%来抑制通胀。】
Some observers worry that the economy will run out of steam because coal is increasingly costly and electricity in short supply. In recent months Chinese industry has suffered power cuts reminiscent of 2004. But China had outages then because its power stations could not make enough power, points out Mark Williams of Capital Economics. It suffers cuts now because they cannot make enough money. The government has not allowed electricity tariffs to rise in step with coal prices, forcing producers to operate at a loss. Raising tariffs is the solution, even if it adds temporarily to the inflation figures.
有些观察者担心会由于煤价持续上涨,电力短缺而失去经济增长动力。【由于煤价上涨,电力短缺,有些观察家担心燃料供应的问题。】最近几个月,中国工业处于和2004年相似的情况,经历着能源短缺的情况。但资本经济学家马克威廉斯指出,04年当时中国有客观情况,那时的发电站不能提供足够的电力。而现在的能源短缺是因为他们赚不到足够的钱。中国政府不允许电价和煤价同步上涨,迫使电力企业亏本经营。提价是一个解决方法,尽管这会暂时推高通胀数字。【即使会暂时增加通胀,调高税率可以解决问题。】
The final reason to worry is also the most grave. Many fear that China’s overstretched property market will collapse, leaving insupportable debts in its wake. The government’s curbs on mortgage borrowing and speculative homebuying are having some effect on sales (down by 10% in the year to April) but not yet on “starts”, or new homebuilding, points out Tao Wang of UBS Securities. Perhaps the government’s drive to build more affordable housing is offsetting a slowdown in unaffordable housing.
忧虑的最后一个原因也是最严峻的。许多人担忧发展过度的【过热的】房地产业会崩塌,这会带来不可承受的债务。UBS证券的王涛指出,政府对于房贷和投资性购房的强硬政策对销售情况开始产生一些影响(直到4月为止下降了10%),但是这些政策还没有作用到“源头”即建新楼盘方面【但对于新造住房没有作用】。也许政府批建更多【推动……的动因】保障性住房的原因是想抵消压制非保障性住房带来的影响。
If the bubble were to burst, developers would suffer horribly. Recent homebuyers would also find themselves out of pocket. But in China, unlike America, housing is a vehicle for saving, not for borrowing. Householders are not up to their necks in mortgage debt, although it has risen quickly to about knee height: over a third of disposable income last year, compared with less than a quarter two years before. If prices fell heavily, the damage to households’ wealth might dampen spending. But they would not be submerged in debt.
如果泡沫爆破,发展商将承受难以想象的损失。最近的购房者也发现他们资金短缺。【最近的购房者也会损失惨重】但不像美国,中国的住房是储蓄的一种手段【工具】,而不是借贷。房贷这把铡刀还没有升到购房者的头上,但已迅速地提到了膝盖的高度:对比两年前只有不到四分之一,去年超过三分之一的个人收入被用于还贷。如果价格大幅下滑,这对购房者的财富造成的损失将会加深。但他们不会深陷债务泥沼的。
Banks also say their exposure to property is manageable, at about 20% of loans. Their indirect exposure might go much deeper. But if their ratios of non-performing loans (NPLs) ever rose too high, the government would step in. As Stephen Green of Standard Chartered puts it, “small NPLs are a bank’s problem; big NPLs are the government’s problem.”
银行业指出目前的房贷水平还在控制范围以内,占大约20%。非直接房贷可能占的多一点。 【银行也表示房贷占其贷款约20%,完全可控。它们间接贷款的水可能更深。】但一旦不良贷款占的比例升高,政府就必须介入。正如渣打银行史提芬格林所说的,“小范围不良贷款是银行的事情,大范围的不良贷款则是政府的事情。”
Given the improbability of a hard landing in China, the swings of sentiment towards its economy are difficult to understand. Ms Wang suggests one explanation: “Outside China most people’s exposure to the country is through the commodities market,” she says. “In that market, things tend to get accentuated…[they] are either great or they are a disaster.” It is like the little-known tale of Goldilocks and the Two Pandas. The Chinese economy is either too hot or too cold, but never just right.
如果认为中国经济不可能硬着陆,对于经济的忧虑就变得难以理解。王小姐提出这样一个解释:“中国人以外的世界人民多数通过商品市场和自己的国家联系起来, 【大多数人对其经济的认识都是通过商品市场得到的】”她说,“在那个市场里,趋势倾向一致,要不就是好事,要不就是坏事。”就像那个不太有名的故事,金发姑娘与两只熊猫,中国经济要不就过热要不就过冷,从来不在平均线上。
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参考译文
China and the world economy
中国和世界经济
Crosstown traffic
穿城交通
The global economy is slowing. For one of its biggest members, that is good news.
世界经济增速放缓。对中国而言反而是好事。
May 26th 2011 | HONG KONG | from the print edition
FOR the past year or two, the big economies have experienced a “multi-speed” recovery, as the IMF calls it. The recovery has resembled third-world traffic, where juggernauts and rickshaws, cars and cycles ply the same lanes at different speeds, often getting in each other’s way.
过去的一两年里,大国经历了被IMF称为“多重速度”的经济复苏。这次复苏类似第三世界国家的交通状况,重型卡车、人力车、小汽车和自行车以不同的速度塞满了同一条路,彼此之间经常造成拥堵。
But for the past month or two, this traffic has slowed in unison. The deceleration is evident in the prices of commodities, which have fallen by 8.6% since mid-February, according to The Economist’s commodity-price index. It is also reflected in American manufacturing. New orders for durable goods, such as engines and cars, fell by 3.6% in April (albeit after a strong rise the month before). Factory output is still growing modestly, according to the Philadelphia Fed’s latest survey, but has lost more momentum since March than in any two months since November 2008.
然而,在过去的一两个月里,行进速度不约而同地慢了下来。复苏的减缓在商品价格上得到了充分体现。自二月中旬以来,经济学家商品价格指数已下降8.6%。复苏的减缓还体现在美国制造业上。诸如引擎和汽车这样的耐用品,其新订单在四月下降了3.6%(虽然在三月有强劲增长)。费城联储最近的调查表明,厂商产出仍适度增长。但是从三月起,涨幅相比08年11月以来是最低的。
America’s recovery relied for longer than most on fiscal injections. But by early August the federal government will bang up against a debt limit imposed by Congress. Any deal to raise the limit would almost certainly require spending reductions, and failure to strike a deal at all would require drastic cuts as the government stops selling debt. Even if the government is allowed to keep selling debt, the Federal Reserve will soon stop buying it, as it reaches the end of its latest round of “quantitative easing”, a programme to buy longer-dated paper with freshly printed money.
美国经济的复苏比大多数财政刺激耗时更长。但八月初联邦政府负债将超过国会设定的上限。任何增加上限的举动几乎肯定会要求减缩开支,而如果不能提高这一上限,政府就无法继续出售国债,进而要求大幅减少开支。即使允许政府继续出售国债,美联储也很快会停止购入,因为已经到达最近一轮“定量宽松”的额度。该项目通过印钞购入长期国债。
The euro zone’s prospects of growing its way out of trouble are receding, according to surveys of purchasing managers by HSBC and Markit, an information provider. Their “flash” (ie, preliminary) index for the euro-area economy fell sharply from 57.8 in April to 55.4 in May, a drop not seen since late 2008. In services the pessimism expressed about the coming year was reminiscent of mid-2009, before the recovery had picked up any speed at all.
汇丰对采购经理和信息提供商Markit的调查显示,欧元区以自身方式消除危机的前景不容乐观。它们对欧元区经济的“初步”指数大幅下降,从四月的57.8%跌至五月的55.4%,这样的下降是08年后期以来从未见过的。在服务行业,对明年的悲观情绪使人回想起09年中旬的情况。当时,经济复苏遥遥无期,没有任何迹象。
The “flash” causing the biggest splash this week was, however, not in Europe but in China. HSBC’s preliminary estimate for Chinese manufacturing fell to 51.1 (see chart), well below the long-term average of 52.3, confirming a slowdown evident in April’s industrial-production figures. The release hurt stockmarkets worldwide. In a single day the Shanghai Composite index gave up its gains for the year.
本周引起最大波澜的不是欧洲而是中国。汇丰对中国制造业的初步预期跌至51.1(见图),比长期平均水平52.3低了不少。这也确认了四月工业生产数据显著的减缓。这一消息震动了全球股东篱把酒黄昏后市。上证综合指数在一个交易日内跌去了一年的增长额。
This strong reaction was curious. In China, unlike the euro area or America, a slowdown is overdue. Its growth in the past two quarters was too fast to sustain, resulting in a worrisome rise in inflation. The government has been trying to slow the economy, by reining in runaway lending. The industrial slowdown is welcome evidence that these measures are working.
这样的强烈反应有些奇怪。中国不像欧元区或者美国,经济增速减缓是迟早的事。过去两季度的增长实在太快,难以持续,带来了通胀威胁的上升。政府试图通过控制脱缰的信贷来减缓经济增长速度。工业的减速表明这些措施起到了效果,应该受到欢迎。
A PMI reading above 50 indicates rising output; one of 51.1 is consistent with GDP growth of 9%, says HSBC. But the figure immediately raised fears of a much harder landing. Observers may worry that inflation has already got out of hand, forcing the government to hammer the economy to bring prices back under control. At the end of 1994, for example, China faced inflation of over 25%. In the next two years, tight macroeconomic controls knocked 4.6 percentage points off its growth rate.
采购经理人指数(PMI)超过50表明产出增加。汇丰表示51.1的PMI与GDP9%的增速相符。然而这些数据迅速引发了经济“硬着陆”的担忧。观察家们担心,通胀已经失去控制,迫使政府采取严厉措施,使价格得到控制。比如1994年底,中国遭遇超过25%的通胀。随后两年,严格的宏观调控使经济增长率下降了4.6%。
But inflation in China is now only 5.3%. Vegetable prices have fallen, and non-food inflation may be easing. China’s inflation has proved more stubborn than expected. But growth will not have to slow by four points to quell it.
但是,中国现在的通胀只有5.3%。蔬菜价格已经下跌,非食物通胀可能已经好转。中国的通胀已证明比预期更难对付。但是不一定非要杀敌一千,自损八百,使增长率下降4.6%来抑制通胀。
Some observers worry that the economy will run out of steam because coal is increasingly costly and electricity in short supply. In recent months Chinese industry has suffered power cuts reminiscent of 2004. But China had outages then because its power stations could not make enough power, points out Mark Williams of Capital Economics. It suffers cuts now because they cannot make enough money. The government has not allowed electricity tariffs to rise in step with coal prices, forcing producers to operate at a loss. Raising tariffs is the solution, even if it adds temporarily to the inflation figures.
由于煤价上涨,电力短缺,有些观察家担心燃料供应的问题。最近数月中国工业遭遇了类似2004年的限电措施。但是,资本经济公司的马克威廉姆斯指出,当时中国切断能源是因为发电厂无法供应足够的能量,而现在则是由于它们无法赚钱。政府不允许电力税率与煤价同步上升,迫使生产商亏损运营。即使会暂时增加通胀,调高税率可以解决问题。
The final reason to worry is also the most grave. Many fear that China’s overstretched property market will collapse, leaving insupportable debts in its wake. The government’s curbs on mortgage borrowing and speculative homebuying are having some effect on sales (down by 10% in the year to April) but not yet on “starts”, or new homebuilding, points out Tao Wang of UBS Securities. Perhaps the government’s drive to build more affordable housing is offsetting a slowdown in unaffordable housing.
最后一个担心的理由是最严重的。很多人害怕中国过热的房产市场崩盘,留下一堆无法支撑的债务。瑞银证券的汪涛指出,政府限制抵押贷款和投机购房的举措起到了一些效果(四月的销售量下降了10%),但对于新造住房没有作用。也许政府推动保障房建设的动因在于抵消非保障房销售的下降。
If the bubble were to burst, developers would suffer horribly. Recent homebuyers would also find themselves out of pocket. But in China, unlike America, housing is a vehicle for saving, not for borrowing. Householders are not up to their necks in mortgage debt, although it has risen quickly to about knee height: over a third of disposable income last year, compared with less than a quarter two years before. If prices fell heavily, the damage to households’ wealth might dampen spending. But they would not be submerged in debt.
如果泡沫破裂,开发商将损失惨重。近期的购房者也会血本无归。但是中国不像美国,房屋是储蓄而非借款的工具。尽管房屋拥有者的抵押债务风险大幅上升,从两年前不到可支配收入的四分之一,到去年的三分之一,但还没到性命攸关的地步。如果房价大幅下跌,房屋拥有者的财富损失可能会抑制消费,但还不会被债务淹没。
Banks also say their exposure to property is manageable, at about 20% of loans. Their indirect exposure might go much deeper. But if their ratios of non-performing loans (NPLs) ever rose too high, the government would step in. As Stephen Green of Standard Chartered puts it, “small NPLs are a bank’s problem; big NPLs are the government’s problem.”
银行也表示房贷占其贷款约20%,完全可控。它们间接贷款的水可能更深。但是,如果银行的不良贷款(NPL)比例一旦过高,政府就会介入。渣打银行的斯蒂芬格林说得好,“少量NPL是银行的问题,大量NPL则是政府的问题。”
Given the improbability of a hard landing in China, the swings of sentiment towards its economy are difficult to understand. Ms Wang suggests one explanation: “Outside China most people’s exposure to the country is through the commodities market,” she says. “In that market, things tend to get accentuated…[they] are either great or they are a disaster.” It is like the little-known tale of Goldilocks and the Two Pandas. The Chinese economy is either too hot or too cold, but never just right.
鉴于中国不太可能遭遇硬着陆,我们难以理解对其经济发展观点的转换。汪涛给出了一个解释。“在中国以外,大多数人对其经济的认识都是通过商品市场得到的,”她说,“而商品市场会强化某种认识,情况不是很好就是很糟。”这就像不为人熟知的金发姑娘和两只熊猫童话那样。中国经济总是要么过热要么过冷,从不刚刚好。
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Notes
Juggernaut [n] 摧毁一切的强大力量, <英>重型卡车
Rishaw=risha [n] 人力车
Ply n. 一层, 一股
v. 定期往返,
v. 不断做,没完没了地做
v. 不断供应,
v. 胶合
resemble v. 类似于
in unison 不约而同地 同时地
momentum n. 动量,动力
bang up(against) 毁坏,弄伤,打破
spending n. 经费,开销,开支 【=expenditure】
quantitative adj 数量(上)的,定量的
recede vi. 减弱,减退
vt. 撤回 【=withdraw】
pessimism n. 悲观,悲观主义
reminiscent adj. 怀旧的,使人联想的
n 回忆者
reminiscent of 使人联想起
Shanghai Composite index 上证综合指数
Splash n 飞溅的水, 污点, 卖弄
v 溅起,溅湿
overdue adj 迟到的,过期的,未兑的
lending n 信贷
PMI 采购经理人指数
Hard landing 硬着陆 【soft landing 软着陆】
Quell v 压制, 平息, 消除, 减轻
power cut 限电措施
outage n 断电, 中断供应, 储运损耗 【注意区分于outrage】
tariff n (特指)关税
grave n 坟墓
adj 严肃的, 严重的, 庄重的
v 凿,雕琢
curb n 路边 【美语:pavement】
克制,阻止
v 抑制, 勒住
【restrain, check, refrain, bridle, curb, inhibit】
这些动词均含“阻止、抑制、制止”之意。
restrain: 含义广,指用强力或权力去阻止或限制某人做某事。
check: 多指阻止前进或继续发展。
refrain: 常指暂时对某种行动或冲动的抑制。
bridle: 指抑制住强烈的感情或欲望。
curb: 可指急剧或果断的制止,也可指用严格的方法加以控制。
inhibit: 主要指抑制愿望、情绪或念头,也指制止某物的蔓延。
Speculative adj 推测的, 推理的, 思索的, 投机的
【speculative buying/trade 投机买卖; speculative market 投机市场】
【speculation fever 投机热】
【speculative philosophy 思辨哲学】
【speculative reserve 推测性储量】
affordable housing 保障性住房,低收入住宅 【- unaffordable housing】
dampen vt (使)潮湿, 使沮丧, 抑制
disposable income 可支配收入
accentuate vt. 重读;强调,突出;
little-known adj 鲜为人知的
goldilocks n 金发姑娘